Study: Electric Trucks to Outcompete Diesel on Most German Routes by 2030

A new analysis from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research suggests that battery-electric trucks are already becoming a more economical choice on numerous routes compared to their diesel counterparts. Looking ahead, the researchers project that by 2030, electric trucks could be the cost-effective option for a substantial majority of road freight operations in Germany—potentially covering 70 to 90 percent of the country’s trucking activities.

The study emphasizes that the total cost of ownership is a decisive factor in fleet decisions. With falling battery prices, improved charging infrastructure, and rising fuel costs, electric trucks are narrowing the gap and, in many scenarios, surpassing diesel trucks in economic terms. This trend is expected to accelerate as technology matures and scale increases.

The findings highlight a crucial shift for the logistics industry, indicating that the transition to electric fleets is not solely an environmental choice but also a financially sound strategy. Operators who delay electrification risk higher operating costs and a competitive disadvantage in the coming years, particularly on routes where daily mileage aligns with the current range capabilities of electric trucks.