Musk's Big-Money Attack Ads Aren't Landing as the Midterms Approach

Elon Musk has now put at least $445 million behind Republican-aligned political committees and outside groups since last year, according to fresh filings from the US Federal Election Commission. The spending is enormous. The returns, apparently, are not.

With the 2026 midterm elections days away, the Tesla and SpaceX chief is openly warning that a Democratic sweep would finish off American democracy “in any meaningful sense of the word.” He framed the ballot as a last chance to hold 51 Republican Senate seats by 2029. That kind of language typically signals confidence. Here it reads more like anxiety.

Where the Money Is Going

Musk’s America PAC has spread cash across 43 House and Senate races, bankrolling a flood of TV spots, online ads, text blasts and mailers. Much of that content is negative — attack advertising rather than persuasion — and Musk routinely pushes it to his 200-million-plus followers on X, the platform he owns.

In Texas, America PAC has reportedly put more than $33 million** into the Ken Paxton Senate campaign, with another **$168 million routed to the Senate Leadership Fund, which feeds money back to Paxton.

The dollars at a glance: $445M+ in GOP-aligned giving · 43 congressional races funded · $33M+ into the Paxton race alone · $168M to the Senate Leadership Fund

The Texas race has become the clearest test of whether the strategy works. Democrat James Talarico has built his campaign on small donations from roughly 1.3 million individuals and has turned Musk into the villain of his own messaging. “Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants our tax dollars,” Talarico said at a recent rally, drawing loud boos at the mention of a personal senator. One digital ad closed with a blunt line: Texas is not for sale.

A Fallout He May Have Invited

There is a practical worry behind all this spending. A Democratic Congress would have subpoena power, and Musk’s companies — Tesla and SpaceX — lean heavily on federal contracts. His work at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, which trimmed staff at agencies that had been scrutinizing his businesses, is exactly the kind of record that invites hearings.

The pushback is no longer only partisan. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who was told publicly that he should go to prison, said Musk’s behavior is part of a lifelong pattern of threats and bullying. Reich added that his concern is less for himself than for voters buried under attack ads, federal workers hit by DOGE cuts, and people abroad hurt by the dismantling of USAID.

Boston University historian Quinn Slobodian frames the spending as Musk flexing to make or break candidates, and in doing so getting ahead of a regulatory wave he expects from a Democratic majority.

So far, the evidence cuts against him. Despite the cash advantage, races in Texas and elsewhere are tight enough that many remain too close to call — and the attack ads may be doing more to energize the other side than to move voters his way.