Ashok Leyland Set for Record Output in FY2027, Then a Two-Year Slowdown

Ashok Leyland is heading toward a production peak in the 2026/27 financial year, but the road ahead looks bumpier. After a record 220,600 units built in 2025/26 — a 12.6% gain — momentum is expected to stall, with output inching up only 0.8% to 222,300 units before sliding for two consecutive years.

The pressure comes mainly from India’s medium-haul commercial vehicle segment, which is entering a cyclical downturn. Two forces that propped up demand recently are losing strength: the GST reductions introduced in October 2025 are no longer stimulating orders, and freight activity indicators are softening. Medium-haul CV production is projected to shrink by 11–12% in 2027/28, bottoming out at 91,200 units the following year.

Buses offer some relief. State-level electrification tenders and a 15-year age cap on government buses should keep demand firm enough to lift bus output in 2027/28 before a modest decline sets in. Light commercial vehicles are expected to hold roughly steady through the trough, supported by fresh product such as the Saathi and a planned 4–6 tonne addition to the line-up.

The cycle should turn again from 2029/30, with total production projected to climb to a new high of 242,400 units in 2030/31.