Farley Puts USMCA Renewal at Even Odds as Washington Weighs Its Options

Ford’s top executive isn’t treating the future of North American free trade as a given. When pressed on whether the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement will survive its current review period, Jim Farley called the chances of an extension a “50-50 chance” — hardly a ringing endorsement from someone who has spent months publicly arguing that the pact should stay in place.

The deal is up for review, and the Trump administration has floated two very different paths: sharply raising how much of a vehicle must come from U.S. sources, or simply walking away from the arrangement altogether. Ford, along with much of the auto industry and Canadian officials, has been pushing to keep it — while seeking modifications rather than an outright rewrite.

Farley’s case rests on what he describes as an uneven playing field. He has argued that rival manufacturers, particularly in Japan and South Korea, already operate with advantages neither tariffs nor exchange rates neutralize — strong regional supply networks, currencies that make their exports cheaper, and domestic steel and aluminum that isn’t subject to the same duties. Killing the deal, in his view, would make it harder for American producers to keep pace.

Whether that argument lands with decision-makers in Washington remains to be seen. Farley, for his part, appears to be bracing for either outcome rather than assuming the deal will simply roll forward.