Toyota's EV Sales Double, but China Is Dragging the Whole Ship Down

Toyota’s electric lineup is finally finding buyers — global BEV deliveries including Lexus hit 309,766 units through September 2026, a 127.4% jump over the same stretch last year. Every month except January has posted at least a doubling, and January itself still climbed 87.5%.

The catch? Toyota’s overall business is shrinking. Global sales slipped 2.2% in September to 860,107 vehicles — the third consecutive monthly decline.

Where the Momentum Comes From

The surge isn’t mysterious. Toyota and Lexus refreshed their first-generation electric SUVs, with the bZ4X now simply called the bZ in the US and the RZ getting a similar update. The lineup has widened quickly since.

• New additions: C-HR+ (badged C-HR in the US), bZ4X Touring (bZ Woodland stateside), and the Urban Cruiser
• Lexus: the ES EV joins the range
• Coming soon: a three-row electric SUV from both brands, expected in showrooms within months

One number stands out. According to Cleantechnica data, the bZ4X ranked as the 20th best-selling EV worldwide through August, clearing nearly 100,000 units.

Not bad for a model that arrived to lukewarm reviews.

China Is the Problem

Toyota sold just over 1.05 million vehicles in China in the first nine months of 2026 — down 18.9% year over year. September marked the eighth straight month of decline in the market, with the drop approaching 20%.

The company’s own explanation points at fuel prices: gasoline and hybrid demand took the hardest hit as pump costs rose. That’s an awkward position for a brand that built much of its reputation on hybrids.

There’s a symbolic sting here too. Through September, Toyota moved 1.19 million vehicles in Japan — more than it managed in China, its second-largest market globally.

Toyota’s full-year global tally reached 7.51 million units, 3.4% below 2025’s pace.

Learning to Play by Chinese Rules

Toyota’s answer looks a lot like what other legacy OEMs are doing: lean harder on Chinese engineering and Chinese factories. The company sells the bZ3, bZ3X, bZ5, and bZ7 through its GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota joint ventures.

The bigger shift: Toyota reportedly plans to build a new Lexus electric SUV in Shanghai rather than Japan, with production targeted for next fall at Lexus’s new plant — using gigacasting to cut costs and speed up output.

That report, from Nikkei in August, signals a real change in how Toyota approaches its most important growth market.

Toyota isn’t alone in this squeeze. Volkswagen’s third-quarter sales in China fell 38% to 405,800 units, prompting CFO and COO Arno Antilitz to say the group “must act quickly and decisively.” VW also intends to use China-developed technology in next-generation EVs sold globally.

For Toyota, the EV growth is real and accelerating. Whether it’s fast enough to offset a collapsing Chinese combustion business is the question that will define the next few quarters.