Tesla Q3 Delivery Forecasts Split by 60,000 Units Ahead of Friday's Report

Wall Street analysts are divided over how many vehicles Tesla moved in the third quarter of 2026, with forecasts spanning 421,758 to 482,000 units heading into Friday’s release. That gap of roughly 60,000 cars reflects just how little confidence the Street has after badly missing Tesla’s Q2 figures by 74,000 units.

JPMorgan sits at the top with 482,000, having trimmed its earlier 516,000 projection. Barclays follows at 475,000, then UBS at 470,000. StoneX lands at 446,500, Goldman Sachs at 435,000 after cutting from 490,000, while Cantor Fitzgerald offers the most bearish call at 421,758. The median across these six firms is around 458,000. Prediction markets lean more optimistic, with Kalshi contracts pointing to the low-to-mid 470,000s, though that has slipped from roughly 480,000 in mid-September.

The downward revisions over the past two weeks trace back to a weak August. Tesla’s US sales dropped 26% year-over-year to about 40,816 vehicles, while China retail sales fell 12.4% to 50,047 units. Almost every estimate implies a year-over-year decline against Q3 2025’s record 497,099 deliveries, a quarter that was artificially inflated by buyers racing to claim the $7,500 federal tax credit before it expired on September 30 of last year. Even JPMorgan’s highest figure would represent a 3% drop, and Cantor’s number suggests a 15% decline.

Sequentially, most projections also fall below the 480,126 vehicles Tesla delivered in Q2, with only JPMorgan expecting growth. The wildcards this quarter include elevated gas prices potentially offsetting the loss of tax credit-driven demand, aggressive discounting in China, and strong export volumes from Chinese production to Asian, Pacific, and European markets.