Ember: Africa's Solar Boom Is Twice As Big As Official Data Shows

Africa’s solar expansion is running far ahead of what national statistics capture, according to new analysis from the UK-based energy think tank Ember. The group found that official reporting on installed solar capacity exists for only 36 of the continent’s 54 countries — and just 14 of those figures cover 2025, with even those likely understating the real build-out.

To close the gap, Ember turned to Chinese panel export records and government procurement data. Solar panel shipments from China to Africa climbed to 23 GW in the twelve months through June 2026, a 53% jump over the prior year. On that basis, Ember puts Africa’s 2025 solar growth at roughly 12.0 GW — nearly double the 6.2 GW estimated by the International Energy Agency and well above IRENA’s 4.6 GW.

The think tank expects installations to accelerate again in 2026, rising about 45% to some 26 GW. Notably, roughly three-quarters of that — around 20 GW — should come from distributed, customer-side rooftop systems rather than utility-scale or off-grid projects. Ember points to Egypt as proof that the two models can coexist: even as the country builds centralized solar at record speed, distributed resources still account for an estimated 43% of its growth.

Egypt’s solar pipeline has deepened steadily, from the 1.8 GW BenBan complex near Aswan to a planned 1.1 GW plant in the Nagaa Hammadi region paired with a 200 MWh battery storage system — the country’s first solar-plus-storage installation. Norway’s Scatec has also signed a power purchase agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company covering 1.95 GW of solar and 3.9 GWh of storage. Abundant cheap renewable power has in turn opened the door to green hydrogen ambitions, and the EU has committed up to €690 million to reinforce Egypt’s grid, a package expected to add 22 GW of renewable capacity by 2030.