China NEV Retail Sales Slip 13% in Early October as Penetration Eases to 61.2%

China’s new energy vehicle market began October on a softer note, with retail sales of passenger NEVs reaching 281,000 units during the October 1-11 window, according to data published by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That figure represents a 13 percent year-on-year drop, and a 7 percent decline versus the same stretch in September. Year-to-date NEV retail volume now stands at 8.04 million units, trailing last year’s pace by 13 percent.

The latest numbers extend a slump that has now run through the better part of a year. September’s NEV retail sales fell 16.7 percent year-on-year, which marked the ninth consecutive month of declines. Should October close without a return to growth, the streak would stretch to ten months, underscoring how uneven consumer demand remains even as policy support and promotional activity ramp up.

Penetration figures paint a mixed picture. NEV retail penetration came in at 61.2 percent for October 1-11, down from September’s record 67.0 percent and well short of the 70.3 percent seen in the first 13 days of September. Wholesale activity, by contrast, held up better. Automakers shipped 301,000 NEVs at wholesale during the period, up 6 percent year-on-year, though 11 percent below the prior month’s comparable stretch. Year-to-date wholesale NEV volume reached 11.75 million units, up 9 percent, and wholesale penetration climbed to 78.1 percent — a figure the CPCA attributes in part to sustained export momentum.

The overall passenger vehicle market remains the bigger drag. Total retail sales came to 459,000 units in October 1-11, a 24 percent year-on-year decline, albeit 7 percent higher than the same period in September. Year-to-date passenger vehicle retail sales stood at 13.79 million, down 22 percent. Gasoline-powered vehicles were hit especially hard, with production down 51 percent and wholesale sales off 53 percent across the first two weeks. Weekly data showed daily retail averaging 32,651 vehicles in the October 1-7 stretch, which overlapped with the National Day holiday — a 25 percent year-on-year drop — before recovering to 57,589 units daily from October 8-11, still 22 percent below a year earlier.

Looking ahead, the CPCA said October’s market has been supported by National Day auto shows, local subsidies and peak-season promotions from automakers, though any rebound remains mild. It also noted that trade-in subsidies this year are weighted toward the later months, in contrast to their gradual phaseout in October last year, and that most NEV brands still lack standout volume drivers. Some manufacturers have shifted to target-driven sales and direct orders, keeping production steady even without order backlogs — a practice the association said contributed to a modest lift in direct retail sales and an unusually elevated NEV penetration reading during the first half of the month.